Declining enrollment puts Burke Schools on track for layoffs, bigger classes

Burke County Public Schools are staring at a roughly $4.5 million budget hole next year because, in part, hundreds fewer students are enrolled, and school leaders say that gap will likely force staff reductions and larger class sizes.

While not giving specific numbers, the discussion hit the table at the Board of Education (BOE) working session on Tuesday as a likely scenario for the district as opposed to hypothetical discussion.

Many aspects of the working session were run-of-the-mill policy proposals. But the moment Finance Officer Keith Lawson approached the board to discuss budget updates, the mood in the room shifted.

“It might seem a bit unusual that we’re here tonight, discussing a ’26-’27 budget when we’re not even halfway through our current fiscal year,” Lawson said. “As you all are well aware, we all know we’re facing a pretty significant hurdle, financially, for the ’26-’27 school year.”

Lawson stated concerns about the budget for next school year, explaining that the state pays the county based on the previous year’s enrollment instead of projections for the upcoming year.

Because of declining enrollment in BCPS, also referred to as Average Daily Membership (ADM), Lawson said the state revenue projections reflect a 2.4% decrease in the budget. In hard numbers, he said that’s an approximate $4.5 million deficit.

District administrators began budget planning on Oct. 16, months ahead of the normal January and February timeline, meeting with directors to get input on how to cut costs.

During the five-year period between 2021 and 2026, BCPS had an increase of 87 teaching positions and a decrease of 12 positions across all other roles.

In the same period, enrollment dipped by 563 students. Of those students, 218 went to charter schools and 313 used vouchers to attend private schools.

“It’s basic. It’s simple. It’s in the numbers. We just have to figure out a way to get there,” Lawson said.

Superintendent Dr. Mike Swan softened the tension by stressing that the district could start by absorbing cuts through retirements and resignations, but he acknowledged that attrition alone may not be enough to close the projected $4.5 million gap.

“Unfortunately, we’re a very labor-intensive operation,” Lawson said. “That doesn’t leave many places to go to for savings that don’t impact people.”

“I know you guys are an optimistic bunch,” BOE Chair Tiana Beachler said. “But I don’t know how much more consolidating we’re going to be able to do … While everyone has been such a great sport about taking on additional duties — I’m looking at you guys — declining ADM is a problem and cutting central office isn’t going to be something to fix it.”

Lawson compared Burke’s staffing to similarly sized districts he did not name, saying they run closer to one teacher for every 20 students while Burke sits at about one for every 14.5.

“If we had the same ratio as (County 3), we would have 209 less teachers,” Lawson said. “I’ll also point out they have the lowest total staffing levels, but they can operate more efficiently because they have 18 principals, which equates to 18 schools, and we have 25.”

The BCPS rates Lawson presented were calculated on 11,206 students and 770 teachers and were based on last year’s numbers.

Lawson pointed out that, with the construction of the new elementary school, expected to cost $55 million, the consolidation of Icard and Hildebran elementary should mean greater efficiencies in the county. However, completion of construction is still approximately two years away.

“I don’t say that to say we’re going to be rifting or laying people off at all to start a panic,” Swan said. “It’s just a matter of statistical numbers. We’ve got to be realistic with ourselves.”