COLUMN: Panthers eye playoff berth in Week 18

The Carolina Panthers haven’t participated in an NFL playoff game since Jan. 7, 2018, which was more than 2,900 days ago.

But with a road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in both teams’ regular-season finale — which takes place today (Saturday, Jan. 3) at 4:30 p.m. — the Panthers would both qualify for the playoffs for the first time in eight years and secure their first NFC South title since they made it to the Super Bowl a decade ago.

Carolina would also earn a playoff berth if the Atlanta Falcons defeat the visiting New Orleans Saints on Sunday. But I certainly hope it doesn’t come down to that.

The crazy thing is, the Panthers haven’t won back-to-back games since they collected three victories in a row to start the month of October. Beginning with their 13-6 road win over the New York Jets on Oct. 19, they have alternated wins and losses over their past 10 contests, meaning they are due for a victory following a 27-10 home loss to the NFC-leading Seattle Seahawks this past Sunday.

And while no team that has alternated wins and losses for as long as the Panthers have has ever made the postseason, Carolina did just beat the Bucs by a 23-20 score at home on Dec. 21. Not only that, but since winning six of its first eight games, Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last eight, although five of those defeats have been by five points or less.

Speaking of close games, each of Carolina’s last four wins have been by three points. Going further back, six of the Panthers’ past seven victories have been by three points, and their 30-0 win over Atlanta on Sept. 21 in Charlotte is one of only two times that they have won by more than seven points since the start of the 2023 season, with the other instance coming in a 36-22 road win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sept. 22, 2024.

On the other side, former Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield was a major part of Tampa Bay’s early-season success, and despite the fact that he hasn’t been as efficient over his last eight games as he was during the Bucs’ 6-2 start, he is still dangerous.

Only six QBs have thrown for more touchdowns this season than the eighth-year pro, who is tied with Seattle’s Sam Darnold, the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen, the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix, and the Chicago Bears’ Caleb Williams with 25 TD passes apiece. And the common denominator among those other five signal callers is that all five have already qualified for the playoffs.

Mayfield doesn’t want to be left on the outside looking in, but neither does a Carolina team that hasn’t posted a winning record since finishing 11-5 in 2017. The Panthers went 7-9 in 2018, 5-11 in both 2019 and 2020, 5-12 in 2021, 7-10 in 2022, 2-15 in 2023, and 5-12 in 2024, with their combined record of 36-80 from 2018-2024 tying the Jets for the worst record in the NFL in that span.

Speaking of QBs, Carolina’s Bryce Young has improved during his third year as a pro, recording career highs in TD passes (21) and completion percentage (63.2%). I’m still not sure that he is the long-term answer for the Panthers, but at least he has provided glimpses of solid play under second-year head coach Dave Canales.

The offensive line has been better this season as well, and running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, the latter of whom is a rookie, have also been key contributors for the Panthers. Dowdle has 229 carries for 1,066 yards and six TDs despite splitting time with Chuba Hubbard for most of the year, while McMillan has 66 catches for 929 yards — which ranks behind only Kelvin Benjamin’s 1,008 receiving yards in 2014 for the most by a rookie in franchise history — and seven scores.

Carolina has also made strides on the defensive side of the ball, totaling 14 interceptions and six fumble recoveries. Only seven teams have more interceptions than the Panthers, and the Falcons are the lone squad that won’t be playing past this weekend.

Nonetheless, when division rivals get together, you can throw records and statistics out the window. The 8-8 Panthers and the 7-9 Bucs know what is at stake, and both teams are going to give their all in an effort to play for at least another week.