Burke, Caldwell projected to shrink as Catawba grows

The Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton metro area is expected to keep growing over the next two decades, but new state projections show that growth will not be shared evenly across the region.

Catawba County is projected to add nearly 25,000 residents by 2045, while Burke and Caldwell counties are both expected to lose population, according to the summer 2026 edition of the Economic Indicators Newsletter, published by the Western Piedmont Workforce Development Board.

The Hickory MSA, which includes Alexander, Burke, Caldwell and Catawba counties, is projected to grow from 378,237 residents in 2025 to 399,557 in 2045. That would be a gain of 21,320 residents, or 5.6%.

Even with that growth, the Hickory MSA is projected to have the third-slowest growth rate among North Carolina’s 15 metro areas. Only the Fayetteville and Goldsboro metro areas are projected to grow more slowly.

The region’s projected growth is driven almost entirely by Catawba County.

Catawba County is expected to grow from 170,036 residents in 2025 to 194,755 in 2045, an increase of 24,719 people, or 14.5%.

Burke County, by contrast, is projected to fall from 90,157 residents in 2025 to 88,434 in 2045. That would be a loss of 1,723 residents.

Caldwell County is projected to decline from 82,003 residents to 80,361 during the same period, a loss of 1,642 people.

Alexander County is expected to remain nearly flat, declining by 34 residents, from 36,041 in 2025 to 36,007 in 2045.

The projections were prepared by the N.C. Office of State Budget and Management and included in the workforce board’s latest regional economic report.

The numbers point to a metro area that is still growing, but slowly, and one where future growth is expected to be concentrated in the region’s largest county.

For Burke and Caldwell counties, the projections raise long-term questions about workforce availability, school enrollment, housing, local tax bases and economic development.

The report also notes that future population growth across the region is expected to come from people moving into the area rather than from births outpacing deaths.

Between 2020 and 2040, the Hickory MSA is projected to record 27,527 more deaths than births. At the same time, the region is expected to see net in-migration of 57,229 people.

In Burke County, deaths are projected to outnumber births by 8,127 between 2020 and 2040. That loss is expected to be offset partly by 9,467 people moving into the county.

Caldwell County is projected to see 8,189 more deaths than births during the same period, along with net in-migration of 8,686 people.

Those projections suggest that Burke and Caldwell counties are not expected to lose population because people are leaving in large numbers. Instead, the counties are projected to struggle with the same demographic pressure facing many rural and small metro communities: aging populations, fewer births and slower natural growth.

The contrast with Catawba County is significant because all four counties are part of the same metro area, but they are not projected to share the region’s growth equally.

Catawba County already accounts for the largest share of the Hickory MSA’s population. By 2045, that share is expected to grow even larger.

Burke and Caldwell counties, meanwhile, are projected to have fewer residents than they do today, even as the broader metro area adds more than 21,000 people.

The report’s overall picture is of a region that remains economically and demographically tied together, but one where growth is increasingly uneven. For Burke and Caldwell counties, future population stability may depend less on births and more on whether they can attract and retain new residents over the next two decades.