Low unemployment masks job losses in Burke’s regional economy

Burke County’s unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% in February, a sign of a stable local labor market. But a deeper look at regional data shows job losses in key industries that could signal growing economic pressure.

The county’s rate remained slightly below North Carolina’s 3.8% and well below the national rate of 4.4%.

Burke County has lower unemployment than its neighbors:

• Catawba: 3.9%
• Alexander: 3.9%
• McDowell: 4.1%

Unemployment below 4% typically indicates a healthy labor market, where most people seeking work are able to find it.

But that number does not tell the full story.

DIFFERENT PICTURE AT REGIONAL LEVEL

Burke County is part of the Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton metropolitan area, and that broader economy is showing signs of weakness.

Total nonfarm employment in the region stood at 154,300 jobs in February, unchanged from January but down 2,500 jobs from a year earlier.

The losses were concentrated in sectors that matter most locally.

Manufacturing dropped 1,400 jobs over the year. Trade, transportation and utilities fell by 1,000. Professional and business services declined by 600. Leisure and hospitality and financial services each saw smaller losses.

Those declines were only partially offset by gains in private education and health services, which added 400 jobs, and government, which added 200.

WHY MANUFACTURING MATTERS

For Burke County, those numbers carry more weight than they might elsewhere.

Manufacturing remains a central part of the local economy. When factory jobs decline across the region, the impact is felt more directly in Burke than in areas driven by finance, technology or government employment.

A STATEWIDE SLOWDOWN

The regional trend mirrors a broader slowdown across North Carolina.

Statewide, total nonfarm employment declined by 2,600 jobs in February. Manufacturing jobs fell by 1,100 over the month and by 12,500 over the year, while trade and transportation dropped by 3,300 over the month.

At the same time, private education and health services posted the strongest gains.

State economists have also pointed to revised data showing weaker job growth across much of North Carolina than previously estimated.

WHAT IT MEANS LOCALLY

The February report highlights a split picture.

Burke County’s unemployment rate suggests the local job market remains stable, with most residents still able to find work.

At the same time, the broader regional economy is losing jobs, particularly in industries that have long supported the area.

That combination matters.

A low unemployment rate can coexist with rising financial strain, as households face higher costs for housing, food and insurance, and as available jobs do not stretch as far as they once did.

THE BOTTOM LINE

For now, Burke County is holding steady.

But the regional data suggests the foundation beneath that stability may be shifting.

The unemployment rate shows where the county stands today. The job losses across the metro area offer a glimpse of where it could be headed.

In Burke County, both signals are worth watching.