Place your bets now on what fall colors will be like in Burke
Wiseman’s View, a scenic overlook off Old Highway 105, also known as the Kistler Memorial Highway, is a stunning viewing area during fall’s peak color season.
Drought conditions and an incoming El Niño rain pattern are casting uncertainty on Western North Carolina’s peak fall color season, but the local visitor’s center chief isn’t worried: Tourists don’t seem to pay attention to such forecasts, he said.
“Interestingly, consumers are very unaware or unaffected by any predictions of leaves,” said Ed Phillips, CEO of Burke County Tourism. “They’re going to the mountains to look for color in late September, early October, regardless of what any meteorologist predicts. Their opinions really have no impact on the public.”
Phillips said Burke County Tourism has created “color reports” in the past to both draw people to the Burke County Visitor’s Center and spread them out in their search for fall colors to avoid congestion, but even that has not seemed to change where and when tourists visit.
One factor that seems to affect people taking day trips to the area is rain, he said, and a state meteorologist says the area will likely have it in abundance soon.
Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist at the North Carolina State Climate Office, told The Paper that October will likely be a wet month this year due to an unusually strong El Niño system working its way toward the United States expected to result in torrential rain across the Southeast.
“If we start getting wetter weather, that will stop those leaves in their tracks,” he said.
A combination of dry weather and higher-than-usual overnight temperatures is already delaying trees in breaking down chlorophyll, the process which causes green shades to fade and give way to yellows, reds and browns.
“Based on that, the trees have pressed the ‘snooze’ button,” he said. “They’re not getting the alarm that the season is over yet.”
While this usually only results in the season being delayed by a matter of days, Davis said it’s likely this fall could resemble 2019, when temperatures were much higher than normal at the beginning of the season.
“In parts of Western North Carolina, we saw that leaf color change delayed by two to three weeks in some spots because it stayed warm for so long,” he said.
Adding El Niño into the mix brings another level of uncertainty, he said, since clouds and rain in the middle of the leaf transition process can produce a potentially “drabber” color.
Davis said since the South Mountains are currently still under drought conditions, they could see an early leaf drop before vibrant colors are able to come through due to “drought stress.”
“They will start dropping their leaves as a way to shed the dead weight,” he said.
For a really beautiful fall color season, Davis said, the area needs cold nights, sunny days and a reasonable amount of rain.
“We’ll see what September does,” he said. “In a sense, we have plenty of time. In another sense, the clock is ticking … This is one of the more unpredictable years I can remember.”
Either way, fall color viewers can expect to see deep reds in the mountains within the next three to four weeks as maples begin to change first, followed by yellows and oranges in other tree varieties as the season progresses.
When it comes to tourism, even El Niño is unlikely to keep tourists at bay for long, according to Phillips.
“They’ll usually just postpone that trip a day or so if it’s bad,” said Phillips.
Phillips said he hopes locals will be patient with out of towners this year and help them enjoy their visit, if only for the economic stimulus they provide. According to Phillips, $1 out of every $7 spent in Burke County comes from visitors.
“They just want to get away and see color like they don’t see at home,” he said.
