NC a swing state, but Burke not a swing county
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Bill Poteat
Editor Emeritus
Going into each of the past five presidential elections, North Carolina has been considered a “toss-up” or “swing” state, meaning either party has had a fighting chance of capturing the state’s 16 electoral votes.
The last Democrat to carry North Carolina was Barack Obama back in 2008. Boosted by strong pluralities in the state’s urban areas, he won the state by the perilous margin of 49.7% to 49.3% over his friend, the late Sen. John McCain.
In 2024, Donald Trump edged Kamala Harris by 51% to 48%. The 2020 vote saw President Trump squeak by challenger Joe Biden, 50% to 49%. In 2016, Trump won over Hillary Clinton, 49% to 46%. And 2012 saw GOP nominee Mitt Romney ease by incumbent Barack Obama, 50% to 48%.
Democratic presidential nominees draw their strength in North Carolina primarily from urban areas — Asheville, the heartland corridor encompassing Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and the Triangle, and Wilmington.
Republican candidates tend to do far better in the more rural, smalltown counties of the state — counties like Burke.
During the modern presidential era, which I consider to have begun in 1960 mainly because that’s the first presidential election I remember, Democrats have carried Burke County a grand total of two times out of the 17 presidential elections held.
The biggest plurality rung up by a Democratic nominee in Burke County came 50 years ago, in the Bicentennial Year of 1976, as Jimmy Carter defeated incumbent President Gerald Ford.
Here in Burke, Carter received 14,254 votes, or 58%, next to Ford’s 10,070 votes, or 42%. Carter carried the state and the nation as well, and America found itself with a smiling peanut farmer from South Georgia as its president.
The only other Democrat to carry Burke County in the last 66 years? Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Here in the foothills of Burke, LBJ received 12,815 votes, or 55.9%, easily besting Barry Goldwater’s 10,081 votes or 44%.
Here’s a rundown of how Burke Counted in the other 15 presidential elections since 1960.
1960 – Kennedy v. Nixon
Terry Sanford, that year’s Democratic nominee for governor, was one of the first major Southern politicians to endorse JFK, and the two basically ran as a team in North Carolina.
Kennedy carried the state against Nixon, but not so Burke County. Here, Nixon won an easy victory with 12,925 votes and 56% compared to JFK’s 10,015 votes and 44%.
1968 – Nixon v. Wallace v. Humphrey
Richard Nixon again carried Burke County in 1968 when his opponents were George Wallace of the American Independent Party and Hubert Humphrey of the Democratic Party.
The national Democratic Party was so unpopular in Burke County that year that Humphrey actually finished third with 5,704 votes at 25%, just behind Wallace at 5,892 votes and 26 percent.
Although he did not receive 50% of the vote, Nixon easily outdistanced both of his rivals, winning 11,068 votes, good for 49%.
1972 – Nixon v. McGovern
I still remember how my Old Man characterized Democratic nominee George McGovern as the 1972 election neared: “He’s a good fella, and I’ll vote for him, but he’s so far out in left field he won’t hear the gun go off.”
He didn’t. Either in Burke County or across the nation. Here in Burke, Nixon won 14,447 votes, good for 70%. McGovern didn’t come close. His totals: 6,197 votes, just barely 30%.
1980 – Reagan v. Carter
By 1980, Carter’s support among both evangelical Christians and progressive Democrats had faded considerably and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan easily defeated Carter in Burke County and across the nation.
The Burke results: Reagan, 12,956 or 51% to Carter’s 11,680 or 46%. Independent candidate John Anderson received just under 3% of the Burke vote.
1984 – Reagan v. Mondale
In 1984, it was Democrat Walter Mondale’s turn “to not hear the gun go off.” Reagan swept 49 of 50 states and here in Burke County he topped Mondale 64% to 36%. The actual vote totals were Reagan, 18,766 to Mondale’s 10,353.
1988 – Bush v. Dukakis
When the 1988 Democratic National Convention, held in Atlanta, ended in July, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis held a 17-point national lead over Vice President George H.W. Bush.
Didn’t quite turn out that way.
Bush trounced Dukakis both nationally and in Burke County. Here, he garnered 15,933 votes, good for 59 percent, while Dukakis received 10,848 or 41%.
1992 – Clinton v. Bush
When Bill Clinton made George Bush a one-term president in 1992, he nearly carried North Carolina, but didn’t, and nearly carried Burke County, but not quite.
Bush edged Clinton in Burke, 13,397 to 12,565, or 44% to 42%. Independent candidate Ross Perot received 4,124 votes for 14%.
1996 – Clinton v. Dole
While the incumbent Clinton trounced challenger Robert Dole nationally in 1996, Burke voters gave him less support than they had in 1992.
Dole received 13,853 or 49%. Clinton racked up 11,678 votes or 41%, and Ross Perot, once again running as an independent, hit the 10% mark with 2,654 votes.
2000 – Bush v. Gore
The 2000 presidential election was a controversial cliffhanger nationally, with the Supreme Court declaring Texas Gov. George W. Bush the winner over Vice President Albert Gore.
No such excitement in Burke County, however. Bush trounced Gore by a 60% to 39% margin, receiving 18,466 votes to Gore’s 11,925.
2004 – Bush v. Kerry
Burke voters were even more enamored with the incumbent Bush in 2004 when he sought re-election. Although the election was close nationally, Bush routed Kerry in Burke County, winning 62% of the vote against Kerry’s 38%.
The actual vote totals were 18,922 for Bush and 11,728 for Gore.
2008, 2012 – Obama Defeated
As noted above, President Barack Obama narrowly won North Carolina in 2008 against John McCain and narrowly lost the state in 2012 against Mitt Romney.
Nothing narrow, however, about the two Republicans’ victories in Burke County.
In 2008, McCain’s winning margin was 59% to 40%, while Romney bested that mark in 2012 with a 61% to 38% winning percentage.
Vote totals were McCain 22,102 votes to Obama’s 14,901. Four years later, Romney received 22,267 votes while Obama received 13,701.
2016, 2020, 2024 – The Trump Triumphs
Donald Trump summons strong emotions from many people. Some love him. Some hate him. Well, here in Burke County, the lovers of Trump far outnumber the haters.
In three consecutive elections, he beat the pants off three separate opponents:
In 2016, Trump received 68% to 29% for Clinton. Ditto for 2020 against Joe Biden. 70% to 30%. And against Kamala Harris just two years ago, 70% to 29%.
Summing Up
That’s a lot of numbers over a lot of years, but one trend towers above all others: the inability of Democrats to even approach a competitive level in Burke County in any of the presidential elections held in this century.
Political loyalties are never guaranteed, and history has a way of surprising us. But if the past 66 years tell us anything, it is that Burke County has marched to a remarkably steady Republican beat in presidential elections.
While North Carolina as a whole continues to swing back and forth in fiercely contested races, Burke County has proven to be one of the state’s most dependable Republican counties.
